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Demand for ICU beds by COVID-19 in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distance measures with Monte Carlo simulations

##article.authors##

  • Ivan Ricardo Zimmermann Universidade de Brasília https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7757-7519
  • Mauro Sanchez Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Brasília
  • Jonas Brant Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Brasília
  • Domingos Alves Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.574

Keywords:

COVID-19, Coronavirus Infections, Forecasting

Abstract

Objectives: to analyze the impact of social distance policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for beds in intensive care units. Methods: based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations, propagation scenarios were built according to the level of adherence of the social distance measures in the context of the Federal District, Brazil. The parameter values ​​were based on official sources, indexed databases and public data repositories. Results: maintaining adherence to the 58% isolation level was the only favorable scenario, with a peak of up to 792 (IQR: 447 to 1,262) ICU admissions between 11/05/2020 and 1/15/2021. The absence of social distance would imply a peak of up to 7,331 (IQR: 5,427 to 9,696) ICU admissions. Conclusion: the projections corroborate the positive effect of social distance measures and the applicability of indicators in their monitoring.

Posted

2020-05-27 — Updated on 2020-05-28

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Section

Health Sciences