Demanda por leitos de UTI pela COVID-19 no Distrito Federal, Brasil: uma análise do impacto das medidas de distanciamento social com simulações de Monte Carlo

Ivan Ricardo Zimmermann; Mauro Sanchez; Jonas Brant; Domingos Alves

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.574

##article.authors##

Ivan Ricardo Zimmermann Universidade de Brasília https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7757-7519
Mauro Sanchez Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Brasília
Jonas Brant Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Brasília
Domingos Alves Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.574

Keywords:

COVID-19, Coronavirus Infections, Forecasting

Abstract

Objectives: to analyze the impact of social distance policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for beds in intensive care units. Methods: based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations, propagation scenarios were built according to the level of adherence of the social distance measures in the context of the Federal District, Brazil. The parameter values were based on official sources, indexed databases and public data repositories. Results: maintaining adherence to the 58% isolation level was the only favorable scenario, with a peak of up to 792 (IQR: 447 to 1,262) ICU admissions between 11/05/2020 and 1/15/2021. The absence of social distance would imply a peak of up to 7,331 (IQR: 5,427 to 9,696) ICU admissions. Conclusion: the projections corroborate the positive effect of social distance measures and the applicability of indicators in their monitoring.