DETERRENCE BY EMERGENCY: SECURITIZED MIGRATION GOVERNANCE AND HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES IN THE TIJUANA–SAN DIEGO BORDER REGION (2022–2025)

José María Ramos García; Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.14279

article.authors6a08d45d97256

José María Ramos García El Colegio de la Frontera Norte
- Conceptualization
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Project Administration
- Resources
- Validation
- Visualization
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia El Colegio de la Frontera Norte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8809-6822
- Conceptualization
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Writing – Review & Editing

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.14279

Keywords:

Migración internacional, gobernanza de fronteras, estado de excepción, derechos humanos, política migratoria

Resumen

Este estudio analiza el impacto de la Declaración de Emergencia Nacional (DEN) de 2025 en los flujos migratorios irregulares del corredor Tijuana-San Diego, analizando las transformaciones en la gobernanza fronteriza y movilidad humana. El objetivo central consiste en determinar cómo la DEN reconfiguró patrones migratorios y evaluar si la intensificación del control fronterizo redirigió rutas y disuadió cruces no autorizados. La investigación adoptó un paradigma cualitativo-interpretativo mediante diseño de estudio de caso, triangulando fuentes documentales diversas: proclamaciones presidenciales, directivas gubernamentales, estadísticas fronterizas, testimonios congresionales e informes de organizaciones humanitarias. El análisis documental y codificación temática constituyeron los instrumentos metodológicos principales durante el período 2022-2025. Los hallazgos evidencian una reestructuración profunda del sistema fronterizo: centralización decisoria en Seguridad Nacional, militarización operacional, procedimientos expeditos de expulsión y coordinación bilateral intensificada con México. Las entradas irregulares declinaron significativamente, atribuible a estrategias disuasorias y control externalizado más que a resolución de causas estructurales migratorias. Paralelamente, las condiciones humanitarias se deterioraron marcadamente, manifestándose en mayor mortalidad migratoria, acceso restringido al asilo y saturación de albergues tijuanenses. Estos resultados revelan tensiones fundamentales entre eficacia operativa e imperativos humanitarios, cuestionando la sostenibilidad ética y jurídica de gobernar la migración mediante la excepcionalidad permanente.

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Biografía del autor/a

José María Ramos García, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Dr. José María Ramos García serves as a Professor‑Researcher in the Department of Public Administration Studies at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (El Colef), in Tijuana, Mexico. He earned his Ph.D. in Government and Public Administration from the Instituto Universitario Ortega y Gasset in Madrid. As a Level II member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers (SNI), Dr. Ramos García has developed a distinguished academic and administrative career spanning over three decades.

His research focuses on strategic governance, public policy evaluation, Mexico–U.S. relations, and regional development. He has authored more than 17 books and over 100 chapters and articles in reputable academic journals and collective volumes. He has also led and coordinated numerous research projects and has organized high-level international seminars involving academic, governmental, and multilateral institutions.

Dr. Ramos García is widely recognized for his interdisciplinary approach, blending rigorous scholarly analysis with applied research that addresses the pressing challenges of governance and public policy in border regions.

Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Dr. Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the Department of Public Administration Studies at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (El Colef) in Tijuana, under the SECIHTI program since 2022. He earned his Ph.D. in Global Development Studies from Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (UABC) and is a member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers at Level C.

His interdisciplinary research spans migration governance, policy evaluation, and human security, with a particular focus on Mexico–U.S. border dynamics. He brings qualitative and participatory methods to the study of institutional responses and social impacts in marginalized communities.

Moreover, Dr. Ramos Valencia enriches his academic portfolio with teaching roles at UABC’s Faculty of Economics and International Relations (FEYRI), where he delivers courses on global history and governance. He has recently expanded his expertise in Generative AI and prompt engineering—applying emerging technologies to social science research and enhancing methodological innovation.