DETERRENCE BY EMERGENCY: SECURITIZED MIGRATION GOVERNANCE AND HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES IN THE TIJUANA–SAN DIEGO BORDER REGION (2022–2025)

José María Ramos García; Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.14279

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José María Ramos García El Colegio de la Frontera Norte
- Conceptualization
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Project Administration
- Resources
- Validation
- Visualization
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia El Colegio de la Frontera Norte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8809-6822
- Conceptualization
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Writing – Review & Editing

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.14279

Keywords:

International migration, border governance, state of exception, human rights, migration policy

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the 2025 National Emergency Declaration (NED) on irregular migration flows across the Tijuana-San Diego corridor, examining contemporary border governance and human mobility. The objective is determining how the NED reshaped migration patterns and whether intensified enforcement redirected routes and deterred crossings. Employing a qualitative–interpretive paradigm with case study design, the research triangulates multiple data sources: presidential proclamations, Department of Homeland Security directives, Customs and Border Protection statistics, Congressional testimony, and humanitarian organization reports from northern Mexico. Document analysis and thematic coding provided primary analytical instruments; no human subjects were interviewed. The timeframe spans fiscal years 2022-2025, enabling comparative analysis pre- and post-emergency. Results reveal profound border management restructuring: decision-making centralized within Homeland Security, expanded military involvement, expedited removal procedures, and intensified Mexico coordination. Irregular entries declined sharply, driven by deterrence and externalized control rather than addressing structural migration drivers. Simultaneously, humanitarian conditions deteriorated-migrant mortality increased, asylum access narrowed, and Tijuana shelters became overburdened. These findings underscore tensions between operational effectiveness and humanitarian imperatives. While emergency measures achieved short-term enforcement objectives, they deepened ethical, legal, and humanitarian dilemmas, questioning the sustainability of governing migration through exceptional states.

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Author Biographies

José María Ramos García, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Dr. José María Ramos García serves as a Professor‑Researcher in the Department of Public Administration Studies at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (El Colef), in Tijuana, Mexico. He earned his Ph.D. in Government and Public Administration from the Instituto Universitario Ortega y Gasset in Madrid. As a Level II member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers (SNI), Dr. Ramos García has developed a distinguished academic and administrative career spanning over three decades.

His research focuses on strategic governance, public policy evaluation, Mexico–U.S. relations, and regional development. He has authored more than 17 books and over 100 chapters and articles in reputable academic journals and collective volumes. He has also led and coordinated numerous research projects and has organized high-level international seminars involving academic, governmental, and multilateral institutions.

Dr. Ramos García is widely recognized for his interdisciplinary approach, blending rigorous scholarly analysis with applied research that addresses the pressing challenges of governance and public policy in border regions.

Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Dr. Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos Valencia is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the Department of Public Administration Studies at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (El Colef) in Tijuana, under the SECIHTI program since 2022. He earned his Ph.D. in Global Development Studies from Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (UABC) and is a member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers at Level C.

His interdisciplinary research spans migration governance, policy evaluation, and human security, with a particular focus on Mexico–U.S. border dynamics. He brings qualitative and participatory methods to the study of institutional responses and social impacts in marginalized communities.

Moreover, Dr. Ramos Valencia enriches his academic portfolio with teaching roles at UABC’s Faculty of Economics and International Relations (FEYRI), where he delivers courses on global history and governance. He has recently expanded his expertise in Generative AI and prompt engineering—applying emerging technologies to social science research and enhancing methodological innovation.