El preprint ha sido publicado como artículo en una revista
DOI del artículo publicado https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0080-2024
Preprint / Versión 1

Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022)

article.authors6a0ffcd1939d9

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.8117

Keywords:

Temperatura

Resumen

Global dengue cases rise, notably in Brazil. This study analyzes temperature’s role in its
spread. By using monthly data and controlling for rainfall, linear regressions with ARIMA errors
were estimated in order to measure the influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue
in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil. Findings reveal that a 1ºC increase in mean
temperature leads to a cumulative increase of approximately 20% – 30% in dengue incidence
within one to two months. Rainfall shows no discernible impact. Results highlight the
importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne
diseases.

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Biografía del autor/a

Bernardo Geraldini, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Institute of Economics

Igor Cavallini Johansen, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Center for Environmental Studies and Research

Marcelo Justus, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Center for Applied Economics, Agricultural and Environmental Research – Institute of
Economics

Postado

27/02/2024

Cómo citar

Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022). (2024). In SciELO Preprints. https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.8117

Serie

Ciencias de la Salud

Derechos de autor 2024 Bernardo Geraldini, Igor Cavallini Johansen, Marcelo Justus

Creative Commons License

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.

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