This preprint has been published elsewhere.
DOI of the published preprint https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0080-2024

Preprint / Version 1

Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022)

##article.authors##

Bernardo Geraldini Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9132-8575
Igor Cavallini Johansen Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5360-3740
Marcelo Justus Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8660-1779

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.8117

Keywords:

Dengue, time series modeling, temperature, rainfall, epidemiological forecasting

Abstract

Global dengue cases rise, notably in Brazil. This study analyzes temperature’s role in its
spread. By using monthly data and controlling for rainfall, linear regressions with ARIMA errors
were estimated in order to measure the influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue
in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil. Findings reveal that a 1ºC increase in mean
temperature leads to a cumulative increase of approximately 20% – 30% in dengue incidence
within one to two months. Rainfall shows no discernible impact. Results highlight the
importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne
diseases.

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Author Biographies

Bernardo Geraldini, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Institute of Economics

Igor Cavallini Johansen, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Center for Environmental Studies and Research

Marcelo Justus, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Center for Applied Economics, Agricultural and Environmental Research – Institute of
Economics

Posted

02/27/2024

How to Cite

Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022). (2024). In SciELO Preprints. https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.8117