Efecto económico parcial de la covid-19 y sus resultados en Camagüey, Cuba

Iris María González Torres; Ernesto Collado Cardoso; Inés Josefina Torres Mora; Zoila Madiú Quiroga Gómez; Carlos Morán Giraldo; Alexander Gomez Rosabal

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.961

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Iris María González Torres Universidad de Camagüey https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1343-4142
Ernesto Collado Cardoso Universidad de Camagüey
Inés Josefina Torres Mora Asociación Nacional de Economistas y Contadores
Zoila Madiú Quiroga Gómez Universidad de Camagüey
Carlos Morán Giraldo Dirección Provincial de Salud Pública de Camagüey
Alexander Gomez Rosabal Oficina Territorial de Estadística e Información

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.961

Keywords:

epidemiology effects from covid-19, economics effects from covid-19, forecasts to confirmed cases, forecasts models

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the partial epidemiological results from covid-19, its immediate economic effect and the medium-term perspective for the province of Camagüey, Cuba.
Methods: Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, choosing the logistic model for forecasting.
Main results: Confirmed cases are asymptotic to 50, an incidence rate and mortality lower than the country and a per cent of recuperation like this, with greater manifestation in the Camagüey city and concentrated in two areas of neighboring health´areas.
Conclusions: The covid-19 exacerbated the economic problems already present, mainly in economic growth due to the decrease in important productions for the agricultural sector and the food industry; the plan of exports and import substitution and commercial activity. This should have an impact on the income to the budget in the short and medium term and the increase in public spending.