The first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak strike in Brazil; notes from an integrated analysis of territorial inequalities associated with patterns of spatial dissemination and ritms of the disease and its impact on the brazilian population

Abstract

The present study seeks to identify possible correlations between the spatial distribution pattern of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Brazil, testing a correlation between factors such as climate, different populations (Indigenous, Quilombola and Parda) and the existence of Subnormal Agglomerates, with the purpose of identifying contexts of inequality and social injustice. Based on the premise that the climate interferes with infectious diseases vehicles (as shown by the study by John Snow, in 1854), data were analyzed regarding the dissemination of COVID-19 in Brazil, from various data repositories made available by Brazilian institutions such as IBGE, the Ministry of Health of Brazil and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, and other international repository data  made available by other sources, of which the platform developed by the synergy created by Johns Hopkins University and ESRI (the most prestigious producer of Geographic Information Systems-GIS) is a greater example. The data were geoprocessed in GIS platforms and allowed the development of thematic cartography on which new geospatial and geostatistical analyzes were carried out to understand patterns. Among the main conclusions, we highlight the need to maintain some prudence with the publication of papers and their conclusions, given the high degree of uncertainty about (almost) everything that involves the spread of the disease and, also, about “what” and “how” it was born. There are already many published studies, but depending on the perspective of approach, it is not uncommon to find studies that are based on contradictory conclusions, depending on the approaches, the scientific sensitivities, the methodologies used or, simply, the quality of the processed data. It is also noteworthy that it is impossible to monitor the movements and mobility of individuals, either part-time or full-time, the correlations made may not be compatible with adequate monitoring and control of the evolution of the pandemic crisis that is taking place worldwide, because promoting the crossing of data on the “fixed space” or objects read as such (individuals) does not necessarily allow the same results to be obtained when studying and analyzing flows; that is, from short time to long time, from short distance to long distance, there are invisible (or difficult to parameterize) variables and factors that clog or atrophy the production of absolutely incontrovertible scientific conclusions. Another topic that deserves a special mention focuses on the idea that, if the climate does not seem to be a determining and unequivocal variable, in terms of classifying the degree of vulnerability and risk associated with the populations, their behavior, age (and gender), composition and racial structure, there seems to be a consistent line of thought that points to the existence of more vulnerable and risk-sensitive territorial and social contexts. These are the cases of the “black”, “brown” and “indigenous” populations and, also, of the individuals that inhabit the so-called Subnormal Agglomerates.