Understanding the punitive spatial pattern in Brazil and São Paulo's prison McDonald

Abstract

The study of the spatial distribution of Brazilian prisons is one of the ways to understand the mass incarceration phenomenon. By using the Penitentiary Census of the Ministry of Justice, 2014, we analyse punitive patterns around the country. The results show the existence of five punitive spatial clusters: two of which are prominent, in the Southeast region and the other centred in the Northeast region (between the states of Pernambuco and Ceará). Methodologically, we structured models for point patterns considering the geographic location (latitude and longitude), in addition, we introduced into the models the prisons’ characteristics, such as occupancy rate and prison capacity. As a result, it is possible to observe a statistical regularity that shows a differential punitive pattern in the São Paulo state. There are many units with large capacities, higher than other states' prisons. The statistical inference was made under the Bayesian paradigm, which allows characterizing the uncertainties of the models in a probabilistic way and circumventing the problems of scientific decision-making based on the p-value. The present paper is the first one to identify punitive groups in Brazil and to statistically verify the existence of different spatial patterns in São Paulo’s prisons, contributing to the debate on punitive policies in the country.