STUDENT DROPOUT IN A BRAZLIAN PUBLIC UNIVERSITY: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether educational factors and degree choice, sociodemographic origin and academic integration are associated with dropout in the first three years of a student at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). We operationalize dropout as the student's permanent departure from the undergraduate course h/she was enrolled. Dropout was analyzed using statistical models of discrete-time survival, which allows treating the data in its longitudinal structure. The institution's microdata were used for the three-year follow-up of the cohort that joined in the first half of 2014. Results point that during the time analyzed, the moments of greatest risk of dropout were the first, second and fifth semester. The factors that were associated with dropout were educational and degree choice, and the accumulated income coefficient per semester (CRa), which in this study was configured as a proxy for academic integration. These findings highlight the importance of understanding decision-making processes for entering and continuing studies.