From surplus to molecule production

Abstract

Three 2026 facts mark the end of the era of ethanol as a fuel-only product for the domestic market, though not the era of fuel ethanol. In 2025/26, corn ethanol grew 29.8% while sugarcane ethanol fell 6.9%; in August, the gasoline blend rose to 32%, three points below the legal cap; in July, 9.7% of new light vehicles were battery-electric, as were one in three small hatchbacks, the largest consumers of hydrous ethanol. A vintage fleet model, with electrification paths based on 23 countries, sets ethanol demand from light vehicles and motorcycles to 2050 against the projected corn ethanol expansion. The surplus reaches 10–18 billion litres per year by 2035 and 14–24 billion by 2040, contrary to the balance in Brazil’s Ten-Year Energy Plan, and it persists even under slow electrification, because it starts with corn. Together, known buffers (the sugar–ethanol mix, slower corn expansion, a 35% blend and the 2019 hydrous-ethanol energy share) bring the central 2035 balance close to equilibrium but leave 4–8 billion in 2040 (0–5 under slow electrification). New outlets (shipping, renewable diesel and jet fuel, chemicals and exports) could absorb 6–18 billion litres by 2040, but are not yet contracted. We propose treating the surplus as a platform: opening these markets, capturing fermentation CO₂ and hosting contract biomanufacturing at sugarcane mills and corn biorefineries, with a São Paulo pilot. With decades of tropical agricultural science and a new generation of scientists, Brazil can become a reliable supplier of fuels, molecules, proteins and carbon removals.