The performance of higher education under Goal 12 of the PNE and PDE: a comparative analysis of the Federal District

Abstract

This article examines the monitoring process, scope, and performance of Goal 12 of the National Education Plan (PNE 2014–2025) and the Federal District Education Plan (PDE 2015–2024), focusing on Indicator 12A, which measures the Gross Enrollment Rate in higher education, while also considering the Net Enrollment Rate. The study adopts a mixed-methods comparative approach, combining documentary and discourse analysis of legislation, education plans, and monitoring reports with quantitative data from the Population Census, PNAD Contínua, PDAD Ampliada, and historical series of educational indicators. The results show that the Federal District (DF) maintained a Gross Enrollment Rate above the national average, remaining relatively stable between 2015 and 2022 before an atypical increase in 2023, mainly associated with a reduction in the 18-to-24-year-old population used as the indicator’s denominator. The findings also reveal methodological differences and distinct statistical sources between national and district-level monitoring, as well as limited participation of the federal and district public sectors in enrollment expansion. Higher education growth was strongly concentrated in the private sector, particularly in distance education. The study concludes that differences in databases, methodologies, and indicators limit comparability and may produce overly favorable interpretations of target achievement, especially in the DF. It therefore advocates improved monitoring through indicators that capture not only coverage and expansion, but also retention, dropout, educational trajectories, and effective access to higher education