Danos à saúde decorrentes de desastres hidrometeorológicos e instrumentos municipais de gestão de risco climático: estudo ecológico em municípios brasileiros, 2017–2020

Ariadne Barbosa do Nascimento Einloft; Laís Silva Sacramento; Gisele Paixão Pereira; Sofia Rafaela Maito Velasco; Andrêa Jacqueline Fortes Ferreira; Maurício Lima Barreto; Elzo Pereira Pinto Junior

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.18274

##article.authors##

Ariadne Barbosa do Nascimento Einloft Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5322-4700
- Conceptualization
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Laís Silva Sacramento Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5915-7431
- Formal Analysis
- Writing – Review & Editing
- Investigation
- Validation
Gisele Paixão Pereira Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5859-1822
- Formal Analysis
- Writing – Review & Editing
- Investigation
Sofia Rafaela Maito Velasco Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4323-0848
- Investigation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Andrêa Jacqueline Fortes Ferreira Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6884-3624
- Writing – Review & Editing
- Validation
- Investigation
Maurício Lima Barreto Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0215-4930
- Funding Acquisition
- Investigation
- Project Administration
- Writing – Review & Editing
Elzo Pereira Pinto Junior Oswaldo Cruz Foundation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6977-2071
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Supervision
- Validation
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.18274

Keywords:

natural disasters, climate change, social vulnerability, unified health system, risk management

Abstract

Objective: This study analyzes the distribution and determinants of municipal hydrometeorological risk management instrument adoption in Brazil. It also examines the association between these instruments and the occurrence, recurrence, and effects of disasters, considering population size and social vulnerability. Methods: A cross-sectional ecological study was conducted across 5,565 Brazilian municipalities. Data on exposure to hydrometeorological disasters (2017–2020) were obtained from the Integrated Disaster Information System (Sistema Integrado de Informações sobre Desastres – S2iD). Information on climate risk management instruments was sourced from the 2020 Survey of Basic Municipal Information (Pesquisa de Informações Básicas Municipais – MUNIC). Poisson regression with robust variance estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios, accounting for population size and social vulnerability. Results: Risk area mapping was the most frequently adopted instrument (46.0%). Contingency plans (25.3%) and early warning systems (23.4%) had moderate coverage, while housing programs (16.7%) and enforcement mechanisms (18.5%) were least common. Municipalities that experienced hydrometeorological events demonstrated a higher prevalence of climate risk management instruments, especially when such events resulted in health-related damage. The strongest association was observed between early warning systems and events that destroyed health facilities (PR = 6.53; 95%CI 3.69–11.55). Municipalities with larger populations and lower social vulnerability implemented the highest proportion of instruments. Conclusion: Prior experience with disasters is associated with increased institutionalization of risk management instruments. Nevertheless, structural inequalities related to population size and social vulnerability remain, underscoring the need to strengthen climate risk mitigation strategies.