The new contour of the arc of deforestation: Can Protected Area Management Mitigate Risk to Isolated Indigenous Peoples?

Abstract

Isolated Indigenous Peoples in the Amazon live under mounting pressure. Locating them and defending their territories depends on costly, high-risk expeditions and on management decisions that rarely draw on spatial evidence. A Risk Index for Isolated Indigenous Peoples (IRPII) combines fifteen drivers of territorial pressure, synthesized through Principal Component Analysis, and asks whether protected area management can contain the threat. A spatial autoregressive combined (SAC) model measures the relationship between the IRPII and management attributes of Conservation Units (UCs). Protection depends not on the category of the Conservation Unit but on management quality and overlap with Indigenous Lands. Resource allocation is reactive: only the most threatened UCs receive support. Spatial modeling provides an instrument for protected area management and an empirical basis for Brazilian Indigenous policy.