The Metamorphoses of Antipetismo: A Stable Form of Negative Partisanship?

Abstract

The decline of party identification has increased scholarly interest in negative partisanship, understood as affective rejection toward specific political parties. This article examines the evolution of negative partisanship in Brazil between 2002 and 2022, with a particular focus on anti-PT sentiment, using data from the six waves of the Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB). We distinguish analytically between anti-party sentiment and rejection of specific parties, operationalizing negative partisanship through the party feeling thermometer. Combining descriptive analyses, logistic regression models, and machine learning techniques, we examine the profile of anti-PT voters and the impact of anti-PT sentiment on vote choice and government evaluations. The findings show that anti-PT sentiment has consolidated into a stable form of negative political identity, particularly since 2018, becoming more prevalent among right-wing, older, and more highly educated voters. Moreover, anti-PT sentiment consistently predicts both electoral behavior and evaluations of government performance, highlighting its central role in the recent realignment of Brazilian electoral politics.