Staying or Leaving: A Logistic Model on Persistence and Dropout in Higher Technical and Vocational Education

Abstract

This article presents the results of a quantitative study aimed at analyzing the factors influencing persistence and dropout decisions in Higher Technical and Vocational Education (HTVE) programs in Chile. A cross-sectional design with a correlational-explanatory approach was adopted, developed in two phases. In the first phase, a census database of 2,788 students from a Vocational Institute in the Biobío region was examined, recording their persistence (71%) or dropout (29%) status after the first year. In the second phase, a validated questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 309 students (95% confidence; 5% margin of error), organized around ten attitudinal and contextual dimensions. Binary logistic regression was used as the analytical method in both phases. The Phase 1 model (accuracy: 91%; R²=0.51) identified male gender, absence of scholarships or loans, low academic performance, daytime enrollment, and two-year technical programs as significant predictors of dropout. The Phase 2 model (accuracy: 86.3%; R²=0.63) revealed that low class attendance, lack of financial, family, and institutional support, and overinterpretation of academic difficulties increase dropout risk, while vocational motivation and emotional support reduce it. It is concluded that economic responsibilities generate a fragile student profile leading to work prioritization and dropout, particularly affecting economically independent male students. Strengthening financial, institutional, and emotional support systems is recommended as a key protective strategy.