Green economic transformation and policy change in Lula’s third administration

Abstract

This study analyzes the decision-making process that led to the emergence of green economic transformation agenda on Brazil’s economic agenda. Based on agenda-setting theory, under the perspective of advocacy coalitions, a qualitative approach was adopted, employing thematic content analysis of semi-structured interviews conducted with economic, climate, industrial and energetic policy makers from the ministries of President Lula’s third administration. The findings indicate that external events to the green agenda subsystem influenced policy makers’ perspectives—particularly the global green economy scenario and the occurrence of extreme climate events—fostering the institutional change that enabled the inclusion of the green economic transformation in the economic agenda. The new global value chain of the green economy and the growing global demand for the energy transition are perceived as opportunities for green economic transformation, given Brazil’s comparative advantages in the renewable energy sector. On the other hand, the global scenario is also seen as a threat, marked by so-called green protectionism, expressed through trade barriers and subsidies for new technologies.