Modelagem e Projeção dos Benefícios das Aposentadorias Programadas no Regime Geral de Previdência Social

Jussiane Nader Gonçalves; Gabriela Oliveira; Bernardo Lanza Queiroz; Guilherme Lopes de Oliveira; Vitor Brito de Gouveia

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15836

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Jussiane Nader Gonçalves Federal University of Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1285-3928
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Funding Acquisition
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Project Administration
- Supervision
- Validation
- Visualization
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Gabriela Oliveira Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1294-7723
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Project Administration
- Supervision
- Writing – Review & Editing
Bernardo Lanza Queiroz Federal University of Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2890-1025
- Conceptualization
- Investigation
- Supervision
- Validation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Guilherme Lopes de Oliveira Federal Center for Technological Education of Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3220-6356
- Formal Analysis
- Methodology
- Validation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Vitor Brito de Gouveia Federal University of Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7502-0678
- Formal Analysis
- Data Curation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15836

Keywords:

Social security, RGPS, time series, statistical modeling, fiscal sustainability

Abstract

The Brazilian social security system, structured under a pay-as-you-go scheme, faces increasing challenges driven by population aging and changes in the labor market, placing pressure on its fiscal sustainability. In this context, this study aims to model and project the number and the average value of retirement benefits granted by the General Social Security System (RGPS), contributing to the debate on its sustainability. To this end, statistical methods are employed to investigate the factors associated with the outcomes of interest and to produce medium-term forecasts, explicitly incorporating uncertainty through confidence intervals. Aggregate expenditures are estimated using an approach based on benefit inflows, with scaling factors applied to link the flow of newly granted benefits to the stock of benefits in payment. The results suggest that social security expenditures are likely to grow at a faster pace than revenues, reinforcing concerns about the sustainability of the RGPS.