Spatiotemporal analysis of homicides and their possible relationship withunplanned urban expansion in Salvador, Bahia

Abstract

The environmental impacts of human activities have increasingly influenced the socio-environmental agenda, particularly due to climate change, resource depletion, and biodiversity loss. Another significant aspect concerns Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), often occurring irregularly and in violation of legal regulations, which increases vulnerabilities, inequalities, and undesirable social phenomena such as urban violence. This study explores the relationship between urban expansion and lethal violence in Salvador, Bahia, one of the Brazilian capitals with high homicide rates. The analysis used maps from MapBiomas and the Google Earth Engine to map urban sprawl between 1990 and 2020, correlating this data with homicide records from 2013 to 2022, totaling 12,916 victims. The results provided insights into the dynamics between urbanization and homicides. Areas with greater territorial expansion, such as Valéria, Subúrbio, and Cajazeiras, stand out as the most affected by lethal violence. The data suggest that irregular growth may increase the vulnerability of certain regions. These findings underscore the need for land use and occupation policies to guide urban growth and mitigate negative impacts on vulnerable populations. The study also highlights the role of geotechnologies in understanding Salvador’s urban dynamics.