Characterizing COVID-19 epidemics dissemination and previsions for Curitiba,Brazil using a modified SIR model

Abstract

The epidemic outbreak of the new coronavirus has fastly reached a pandemic status. That has awaken interest from the academy on mathematical models that alow for contagion curves previsions. A SIR model with modied solutions has been presented and numerical solutions of R0 and τ for data corrected including probable non-notied cases has been reached. Previsions have been made to support government decision-makers on strategies to ght the pandemic. Main topics discussed were state-wide inward dissemination and probable second waves of dissemination in large urban areas taking Curitiba-PR, Manaus-Am and the state of Parana as study cases. Also, a correlation between susceptibles urban density and dissemination parameters R0 and τ are shown to be precise do a 10% error margin. That was quite instrumental on previewing second wave parameters. Were considered data available up to may, 8, 2020.