Recife e Belém são atualmente as únicas capitais que já estão na fase de saturação da Covid-19 no Brasil

Gerson C.  Duarte-Filho; Arthur A.  Brum; Raydonal Ospina; Francisco A. G.  Almeida; Antônio M. S.  Macêdo; Giovani L.  Vasconcelos

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1001

##article.authors##

Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000 São Cristóvão, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-4981
Arthur A. Brum Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2843-042X
Raydonal Ospina Federal University of Pernambuco https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9884-9090
Francisco A. G. Almeida Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000 São Cristóvão, Brasil
Antônio M. S. Macêdo Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4522-031X
Giovani L. Vasconcelos Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, 81531-990 Curitiba, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1001

Keywords:

N/A

Abstract

In this technical note we analyze the accumulated fatality curves attributed to Covid-19 in the 27 Brazilian state capitals until July 19, 2020. We employed three mathematical growth models to assess at which stage of the epidemic each of these cities is at. These models were implemented in the Modinterv Covid-19 application, developed by the Federal Universities of Paraná, Pernambuco and Sergipe, which can be accessed through the <http://fisica.ufpr.br/modinterv> page. The analysis reveals that only Recife and Belém appear to have reached the saturation phase of the epidemic, when the accumulated fatality curve begins to approach the plateau. Among the other capitals, eight are still in the initial phase of rapid growth and seventeen are in the intermediate phase, when the epidemic curve has already passed through the inflection point but is still relatively far from the plateau.