Preprint has been published in a journal as an article
DOI of the published article https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Preprint / Version 1

Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020

Keywords:

COVID-19, Coronavirus disease, Forecasting, Statistical models, Epidemiology

Abstract

Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

Posted

2020-05-29

Section

Health Sciences