DOI of the published article https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
Keywords:COVID-19, Coronavirus disease, Forecasting, Statistical models, Epidemiology
Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
Copyright (c) 2020 Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.