O preprint foi publicado em outro meio.
DOI do preprint publicado https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Preprint
/
Versão 1
DOI do preprint publicado https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020Palavras-chave:
COVID-19, Coronavirus disease, Forecasting, Statistical models, EpidemiologyResumo
Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
Downloads
Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.
Enviado
29/05/2020
Postado
29/05/2020
Como Citar
Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model. (2020). Em SciELO Preprints. https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Série
Ciências da Saúde
Copyright (c) 2020 Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
