Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

Edson Zangiacomi Martinez; Davi Casale Aragon; Altacílio Aparecido Nunes

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020

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Edson Zangiacomi Martinez Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0949-3222
Davi Casale Aragon Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1019-3654
Altacílio Aparecido Nunes Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9934-920X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020

Keywords:

COVID-19, Coronavirus disease, Forecasting, Statistical models, Epidemiology

Abstract

Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.