Preprint / Version 1

Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19




Covid-19, strategy, herd immunity, deaths, fatality, chronic disease, age


The foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it.

Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy).

The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.


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Author Biographies

Alejandro Buján Pérez, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Departamento de Administración Financiera y Contabilidad

Ignacio López Domínguez, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Coordinador académico de la asignatura Fundamentos de Administración Financiera de la Empresa. Departamento de Administración Financiera y Contabilidad (AFCO). Department of Accounting and Finance (A&F). ResearcherID: O-4636-2015 Web of Science ResearcherID N-8724-2019 Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Campus de Somosaguas Despacho 80. Pabellón de sexto Universidad Complutense de Madrid




Health Sciences