Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
Keywords:Covid-19, strategy, herd immunity, deaths, fatality, chronic disease, age
The foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it.
Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy).
The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.
Copyright (c) 2020 Alejandro Buján Pérez, Ignacio López Domínguez, Pablo Mallaina Garcia, Ramiro Romero Fresneda
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.