Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19

Abstract

The foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it.

Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy).

The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.