DOI of the published article https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017
COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the Ensuing Evolution
Keywords:COVID-19, transmission, forecasting, pandemics, Brazil
Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions. Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.
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Copyright (c) 2020 Caroline Stein, Ewerton Cousin, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro , Ísis Eloah Machado , Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos , Ana Paula Souto Melo, Elisabeth França , Lenice Ishitani , Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes , Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos , Tatiane Moraes de Sousa , Fatima Marinho , Maria Inês Schmidt , John Gallagher , Mohsen Naghavi , Bruce B. Duncan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.