Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: Projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a Evolução Observada

Caroline Stein; Ewerton Cousin; Deborah Carvalho  Malta; Antonio Luiz Pinho  Ribeiro; Ísis Eloah  Machado; Ana Maria Nogales  Vasconcelos; Ana Paula Souto  Melo; Elisabeth França; Lenice Ishitani; Mariana Santos  Felisbino-Mendes; Valéria Maria de Azeredo  Passos; Tatiane Moraes de  Sousa; Fatima Marinho; Maria Inês  Schmidt; John Gallagher; Mohsen Naghavi; Bruce B.  Duncan

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110

##article.authors##

Caroline Stein Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-1630
Ewerton Cousin University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle/WA, USA. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3455-8865
Deborah Carvalho Malta Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem. Belo Horizonte/MG/Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8214-5734
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Clínica Médica da Faculdade de Medicina, Belo Horizonte/MG/Brasil
Ísis Eloah Machado Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva. Ouro Preto/MG/Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4678-2074
Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Estatística - Instituto de Ciências Exatas. Brasília/DF/Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7589-107X
Ana Paula Souto Melo Universidade Federal de São João Del Rey, Faculdade de Medicina. Divinópolis, MG – Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9955-0824
Elisabeth França Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva e Social. Belo Horizonte, MG – Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6984-0233
Lenice Ishitani Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Grupo de Pesquisa em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde. Belo Horizonte, MG – Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-4736
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem. Belo Horizonte/MG/Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais. Belo Horizonte, MG – Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2829-5798
Tatiane Moraes de Sousa Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa. Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-465X
Fatima Marinho Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil. Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-9163
Maria Inês Schmidt Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre/RS, Brasil
John Gallagher University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle/WA, USA.
Mohsen Naghavi University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Department of Health Metrics Sciences. Seattle/WA, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6209-1513
Bruce B. Duncan Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Social. Porto Alegre/RS, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110

Keywords:

COVID-19, transmission, forecasting, pandemics, Brazil

Abstract

Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions. Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.