Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022)

Resumen

Global dengue cases rise, notably in Brazil. This study analyzes temperature’s role in its
spread. By using monthly data and controlling for rainfall, linear regressions with ARIMA errors
were estimated in order to measure the influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue
in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil. Findings reveal that a 1ºC increase in mean
temperature leads to a cumulative increase of approximately 20% – 30% in dengue incidence
within one to two months. Rainfall shows no discernible impact. Results highlight the
importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne
diseases.