Trends in reported feminicides and attempted feminicides in Brazil, 2015 to 2025

Resumen

Objective: To describe the trend in the monthly number of reported feminicides and attempted feminicides in Brazil between 2015 and 2025. Methods: Trends and potential change points in these time series were identified using the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt Change, Seasonality, and Trend (BEAST) model. Data were obtained from SINESP (the National Public Security Information System), based on police reports recorded by Brazilian Civil Police forces. Results: A total of 13,611 reported feminicides and 21,511 reported attempted feminicides were recorded during the study period. The BEAST model identified two distinct periods in the monthly feminicide time series, with a sharp increase from January 2015 to April 2020, followed by a slower rise. Four significant change points were identified in the attempted feminicide data series, which was characterized by alternating periods of growth and stability. Conclusion: An apparent stabilization of feminicide reports may reflect institutional limitations in reporting systems, rather than true reductions in violence. The change points in attempted feminicides series may correspond to key legal milestones, suggesting that recorded trends often reflect reporting capacity and legal changes rather than pure incidence rates. While public policies have improved case classification, they focus more on damage control than on transforming patriarchal structures, highlighting the need for new approaches and better institutional capacity to reduce victim invisibility.