Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in Brazil: Construction of a hypothetical-deductive theoretical model

Abstract

The article addresses Brazil's return to the Hunger Map in 2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic. After public policies in 2014-2015, food insecurity worsened from 2016 onwards, intensifying during the pandemic. Social inequality, unemployment, informality and family changes contributed to the worsening. The research used hypothetical-deductive models, based on two national surveys and regional studies. The process involved formulating hypotheses, reviewing the literature, deducing predictions and identifying variables. Two general hypotheses were formulated, relating the pandemic to worsening inequalities and introducing new sociodemographic variables. Contextual variables and impact mechanisms of the pandemic were identified. Contextual and individual consequences include food insecurity, health impacts and widening inequalities. The intersection between food insecurity and social inequalities highlights the need for comprehensive public policies. The rise in food insecurity during the pandemic has had significant implications and will require a long-term, sustainable approach. The proposed theoretical model, represented by a DAG, points out paths and causal relationships between events, highlighting the complexity of the scenario. The study concludes that, in addition to trends prior to the pandemic, the health emergency introduced crucial variables for understanding food insecurity in Brazil. The hypothetical-deductive theoretical model offers a more accurate understanding of the causes and effects of the pandemic.