Why Russia invaded Ukraine and how wars benefit autocrats: The domestic sources of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

Contrary to Vladimir Putin's geopolitical arguments to justify the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the confrontation has not benefited Russia's position in the European balance of power, though it may bring significant gains to his personalist autocracy. This paper aims to shed light on the causes of Russia's military aggression by addressing the following research questions: (1) Why did Russia invade Ukraine? (2) How do wars benefit autocrats? I argue that the securitization of the West and Ukraine as existential threats to Russia has been mobilized by Putin as a paramount regime legitimation strategy, aiming to boost his popularity, justify the crackdown on critics and oppositionists, empower the security establishment and reinforce nationalism and the regime's ideological precepts, such as the the supremacy of Russian "traditional" values over Western "decadent" liberal values – reference by Kremlin ideologues to LGBTQIA+ movements and representative democracy. I draw on a multi-methods research design, including survey analysis, discourse analysis, legislative content and inferential statistics. The results show that wars can benefit autocrats in different manners. The regime's survival is also a realpolitik goal: Putin and his security establishment need a hostile West and a threatful Ukraine for self-legitimation.