The War in Ukraine: An analysis of the conflict and its impacts on Russian and Ukrainian societies

Abstract

Wars shape identities, states and political regimes. In this article, I analyze the three phases of the war in Ukraine and its impact on Russian and Ukrainian societies, mainly their humanitarian, economic, political and identity effects. I also address the political and social situation in the territories occupied and annexed by Russia. The study draws on official data from the UN, international NGOs, Russian and Ukrainian public opinion research centers, as well as scholars and media outlets from Russia, Ukraine and the West. Eight months of war have heavily harmed Ukraine: more than six thousand civilians were killed, millions left their homes, the GDP fell by 30% and the country lost 15% of its territory. In Russia, although the economy has shown significant resilience in the face of Western sanctions, the prolongation of the war is already causing dissatisfaction. The conflict was instrumentalized by Vladimir Putin to further harden his authoritarian regime. Contrary to its ethnonationalist project, the resistance in eastern and southern Ukraine shows that linguistic-cultural proximity does not necessarily translate into automatic loyalty to the Russian state. The war itself has the potential to distance Ukrainian identity, boosting long-term animosities.