Visceral leishmaniasis in Piauí, Brazil, 2007-2019: ecological analyzes of time series and spatial distribution of epidemiological and operational indicators

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend and spatial distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Piauí, Brazil, from 2007 to 2019. Methods: Ecological time series study. The Prais-Winsten regression was used to analyze the trend in the incidence, lethality and operational indicators of VL. Results: The mean incidence of VL in the state was 6.03/100,000 inhabitants, with an increasing trend in the 40-59 age group [annual percentage variation (VPA = 3.88 [95%CI 0.49;7.40]) and in the regions located in the south of the state: Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba (VPA =14.19 [95%CI 3.91;25.50]) and Chapada das Mangabeiras (VPA = 12.15 [95%CI 6.69;24.96]). The average lethality was 6.02%, remaining stable. The average rate of evolution to cure was 52.58%, with a decreasing trend (VPA = -5.67 [95%CI -8.05;-3.23]). Conclusion: There was a trend towards an increase in the incidence and a reduction in the cure rate of VL.