Germany's 'coronavirus anomaly': Statistical evidence that early mass testing leads to low mortality rates

Abstract

In this note, we present a statistical analysis of the mortality rates of COVID-19 for several selected European countries. We compare the countries' mortality rates with their respective number of tests as a function of the time since the first death. Our analysis shows that countries that either delayed mass testing, such as Italy, or have not fully adopted it, such as France and the UK, have had much higher mortality rates than Germany, which has adopted a policy of wide and early testing. Conversely, countries that have followed Germany's example, such as Portugal, have so far had comparatively low mortality rates.