Bolsonarism beyond Bolsonaro: The 2026 presidential elections and ideological alignment in Brazil

Abstract

This article examines Brazilian public preferences on political issues, attitudes toward the democratic system, and the ideological foundations of Bolsonarism over an eight-year period (2018–2026). Drawing on longitudinal data from the "A cara da democracia" survey series and the Quaest polling institute, we investigate how issue alignment and affective polarization sustain the movement even after Jair Bolsonaro's criminal conviction and amid the scandals surrounding his successor in the 2026 presidential race. Our findings show that Brazilian society remains predominantly conservative, open to authoritarian solutions, and distrustful of democratic institutions, providing fertile ground for the movement. The ideological core of Bolsonarism proves remarkably stable throughout the period and does not erode with government turnover. Layered onto this programmatic anchoring is an affective dimension: identification with Bolsonarism operates as an interpretive lens that shapes how supporters assess political events, drives divergent evaluations across partisan groups, and intensifies as issues move closer to the figure of the leader. We argue that it is the combination of a solid issue-based alignment and an affective bond that filters political reality which accounts for the electoral resilience of Bolsonarism beyond Bolsonaro.