Future dynamics of land use and land cover in the Cerrado biome

Ana Paula Frazão; Manuel Eduardo Ferreira; Silvio Braz Sousa; Sophia Victória Santos

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.16946

##article.authors##

Ana Paula Frazão University of São Paulo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0855-2200
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
Manuel Eduardo Ferreira Federal University of Goiás https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4516-6373
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Writing – Review & Editing
Silvio Braz Sousa Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9776-3295
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Writing – Review & Editing
Sophia Victória Santos Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7046-4395
- Conceptualization
- Writing – Review & Editing
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.16946

Keywords:

Land-Use Change, Spatial Modeling, Cerrado Biome, Deforestation Scenarios, Environmental Policy

Abstract

The Cerrado, recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot, is under intense pressure from agricultural expansion. To support public policy planning, this study projected future land use and land cover scenarios up to 2100 using a spatial modeling framework developed in Python, based on Markov Chains, Weights of Evidence, and neighborhood metrics. PRODES deforestation rates were used to define three scenarios: optimistic (6,512.6 km²/year), trend (8,140.8 km²/year), and pessimistic (11,551 km²/year). The results indicate that the optimistic scenario slows the loss of native vegetation, whereas the trend scenario maintains recent conversion patterns and the pessimistic scenario intensifies landscape fragmentation. The highest annual losses are concentrated between 2030 and 2050 (optimistic: –2,707 km²; trend: –6,342 km²; pessimistic: –15,711 km²), followed by a decline due to the scarcity of remaining natural areas. By 2100, native vegetation may be reduced to 1.3–1.7 million km², corresponding to 47–61% of its original extent. These findings indicate that maintaining current trajectories may compromise the biome’s ecological resilience, highlighting the need for stricter conservation and deforestation control policies.