Determinants of Electoral Success and Reelection in Brazilian Municipal Legislatures (2000–2024): A Scoping Review Protocol

Abstract

This study presents a scoping review protocol designed to systematically map the body of empirical evidence on the electoral performance and reelection of municipal councillors (vereadores) in Brazil, distinguishing, on the one hand, the recurring empirical patterns identified in the literature and, on the other hand, the explanatory frameworks used to interpret them, analytically organized into four dimensions (institutional, individual, strategic, and contextual), in order to identify convergences, tensions, and gaps in this voluminous and fragmented field of research. The central question, structured through the PCC (Population, Concept, Context) framework, investigates which variables influence the electoral performance of municipal councillors in the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities subject to the open-list proportional representation system. The period analyzed covers seven complete electoral cycles (2000-2024), a choice justified by the consolidation of the regulatory framework following Law 9.504/1997 and the availability of data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The publication window extends to 2026 to capture studies on the most recent electoral cycle that are still in the publication process. The searches cover six information sources: Web of Science, Scopus, CAPES Portal (which incorporates SciELO Brazil), Google Scholar, BDTD, and ANPOCS, with the targeted inclusion of grey literature. In a methodological innovation, the screening process will incorporate Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI), specifically the Claude model (Anthropic), operating under a rigorous human-in-the-loop validation protocol with pre-established performance thresholds (sensitivity ≥ 95%; specificity ≥ 70%; F1-score ≥ 0.85; Cohen's Kappa ≥ 0.70). The synthesis of findings will combine a narrative-thematic approach with the construction of a two-dimensional Evidence Map. The protocol was prospectively registered on the OSF (https://osf.io/e6s8m) prior to the commencement of searches, in strict compliance with JBI guidelines, the PRISMA-ScR and PRISMA-trAIce checklists, and CNPq Ordinance No. 2,664/2026.