Public Policy Note: Bolsa Família exits and formal employment in the municipality of Bento Gonçalves

Abstract

This note evaluates whether the decline in the number of Bolsa Família beneficiary families in the municipality of Bento Gonçalves is consistent with the municipal policy, rather than merely reflecting a regional trend. I compare the municipality with a synthetic combination of similar municipalities in Brazil’s South region. The counterfactual indicates a relevant additional reduction: in March 2026, there were 292 fewer families in the program relative to the synthetic municipality. A positive signal also appears in the stock of formal jobs. Because the data are aggregated, the exercise does not show that the same families were hired; but it indicates an aggregate causal pattern that deserves investigation with disaggregated data.