Multi-year capital requirements in life insurance: A stochastic mortality-based evaluation

Abstract

This research aims to assess solvency capital for life insurance companies beyond the 1-year horizon, with a focus on the Brazilian Capital Framework (BCF) and Solvency II (SII), through a stochastic model using Monte Carlo simulations. Most capital frameworks apply 1-year horizons, disregarding future capital needs arising from the evolution of longevity and mortality risk, particularly under different interest rate regimes. This study incorporates a stochastic multi-year approach to bridge this oversight. By addressing long-term solvency and exploiting stochastic mortality models, this study enhances the understanding of future capital requirements and the importance of robust long-term risk management in life insurance. The findings contribute to advancing regulatory frameworks and improving the financial sustainability of the life insurance sector, particularly in preparing for extreme scenarios such as pandemics or longevity improvements. The study employs deterministic and stochastic mortality models, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the requirements of capital need in a multi-year horizon. It calculates capital requirements for traditional life insurance products under various scenarios, offering a comparative analysis. This study reveals that current regulatory frameworks, such as SII and the BCF, should consider extending their 1-year horizon to incorporate future capital needs not fully captured by short-term perspectives. It evaluates the capital requirement under SII and BCF using a hypothetical portfolio of 10,000 male participants for traditional life insurance products (term-life, endowment, and whole-life). Findings indicate that while it is broadly understood that lower interest rates tend to increase capital requirements, our results provide a quantitative assessment of this effect under the BCF and SII. By applying multi-year stochastic simulations, we demonstrate how changes in the interest rate environment can shift the timing and magnitude of required capital, underscoring the relevance of long-term solvency projections in regulatory analysis.