MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY TO COASTAL EROSION IN THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PARAENSE, EASTERN AMAZON

Abstract

Coastal erosion has emerged as a critical environmental challenge for coastal societies worldwide, particularly under accelerating climate change and sea-level rise. These processes intensify shoreline retreat, increasing pressure on coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and local economies. This study evaluates coastal erosion vulnerability along the beaches of Bora, Crispim, and Marudá, located in the northern sector of the municipality of Marapanim, northeastern Pará State, Brazil. A multi-criteria decision-making framework based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to integrate seven key physical variables: shoreline change, geomorphology, soil types, proximity to the CL, coastal vegetation, elevation, and slope. The criteria were selected according to data availability and their relevance for coastal vulnerability assessment. Spatial modeling results reveal a clear concentration of high vulnerability zones, covering approximately 0.4 km² (11%) of the study area, predominantly located along Marudá and Crispim beaches. Moderate vulnerability occupies 2.1 km² (57%), while low vulnerability corresponds to 1.2 km² (32%). These findings provide critical scientific support for coastal risk mitigation, territorial planning, and the development of adaptive coastal management strategies.