Climate trends and extremes in the municipality of Nova Odessa-SP from 1990 to 2020

Abstract

Research worldwide has recorded changes in local-scale temperature and precipitation patterns, mostly in large and medium-sized urban centers, while small cities remain less explored. However, understanding climate dynamics in these contexts is crucial, as they present higher vulnerability to extreme events, specific environmental characteristics, and direct influence on natural and agricultural areas, requiring tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study analyzes Nova Odessa, a small municipality located in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas (RMC), São Paulo, as a case study to investigate potential local climate changes. Maximum and minimum temperature, as well as precipitation data, were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) database, covering the period from 1990 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were applied, along with climate extreme indices. Results revealed increases in minimum (+0.74 °C) and maximum (+1.26 °C) temperatures, combined with a reduction in average precipitation (–0.62 mm). Additionally, an increase in monthly thermal amplitude, fewer consecutive wet days, and more consecutive dry days were observed, with the most significant changes occurring during spring. These findings highlight that climate alterations are already evident in small urban centers within the RMC, reinforcing the need for further studies to investigate their causes and implications.