Evaluation of the Special Tax Recovery Program of the Federal Revenue of Brazil

Abstract

The aim of this article was to evaluate the PERT program of the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service, launched in 2017, by assessing the extent to which the PERT contributed to the recovery of tax debts among program participants. Despite the widespread use of tax installment programs, there are no clear criteria for assessing their effectiveness nor systematic evidence on their economic effects, as official analyses are limited to the amounts collected. This gap, compounded by the scarcity of studies with rigorous empirical designs, constrains the understanding of the impacts of these programs. The study seeks to fill this gap by contributing to the strengthening of evidence-based public policies. Given the complexity of the Brazilian tax system, the topic proves to be particularly timely and relevant. The study’s main innovative contribution lies in the combination of microdata from the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service with a quasi-experimental methodology, enabling the findings to inform decisions regarding the continuation of PERT or the design of new tax installment programs. The results have practical implications for the formulation and evaluation of tax debt recovery policies. The study adopts an approach based on the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service database, using a sample of 66,075 taxpayers, ensuring representativeness and reliability in data collection. Applying the difference-in-differences technique, the analysis compares a treatment group of PERT participants with a control group of non-participants to evaluate tax recovery behavior between 2017 and 2021. The study concludes that the Special Tax Recovery Program (PERT) had a positive effect on the evolution of the tax compliance of adherents, with an average value of 4.17 p.p. favorable in this group compared to non-adherents, contributing to the tax recovery of adherents. Furthermore, differences were observed based on socioeconomic characteristics, such as higher compliance among younger companies and certain economic sectors being associated with greater participation and compliance under the special program.