El Brote de Sarampión en México, 2026: Dinámica de Transmisión y Fallas de la Contención

Victor Gomez-Bocanegra; Carlos A Pantoja-Melendez; Guadalupe S Garcia-De La Torre

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15239

##article.authors##

Victor Gomez-Bocanegra National Autonomous University of Mexico https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8503-4514
- Project Administration
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Conceptualization
Carlos A Pantoja-Melendez National Autonomous University of Mexico https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5244-2538
- Data Curation
- Methodology
Guadalupe S Garcia-De La Torre National Autonomous University of Mexico https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2322-3333
- Visualization
- Methodology
- Data Curation
- Writing – Review & Editing

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15239

Keywords:

Measles / epidemiology, Basic Reproduction Number, Syndemic, Vaccination Coverage

Abstract

Introduction: Mexico is facing a critical measles outbreak with an effective reproductive number (R) of 3.34. The epicenter has shifted to Jalisco, driven by deficient vaccination coverage (56%). Objective: To analyze transmission dynamics and propose a precision containment strategy. Results: Exponential growth was identified (rho = 0.10) with a projected peak of 500 daily cases by April 2026. Incidence shows a bimodal pattern, identifying young adults (25-29 years) as a bridge population. A strong positive correlation (r ≥ 0.96) was confirmed between diabetes mellitus and infectious susceptibility, establishing a syndemic that contributes to a case fatality rate of 0.29%. Conclusions: Current strategies are insufficient. Transitioning to an operational epidemiological intelligence model is imperative to authorize vaccine blockade during the prodromal phase (pre-exanthema) based on the acceleration of the incidence rate's beta parameter. Without aggressive operational intervention, Mexico will lose its Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) elimination certification and serve as a global amplification hub during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.