MSIRV Simulation for Dengue with Vaccination in a Complex Urban Domain

Amanda Maria Cardoso Cabral; Edivaldo Junior

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15069

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Amanda Maria Cardoso Cabral Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5393-0483
- Conceptualization
- Data Curation
- Formal Analysis
- Funding Acquisition
- Investigation
- Methodology
- Resources
- Software
- Validation
- Visualization
- Writing – Original Draft Preparation
- Writing – Review & Editing
Edivaldo Junior Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro
- Project Administration
- Funding Acquisition

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.15069

Keywords:

MSIRV, dengue, numerical methods

Abstract

This research investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue propagation using an MSIRV (Mosquito-Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated) epidemiological model. The central focus is the application of numerical methods (Finite Element Method, Crank-Nicolson Method, and Newton Method) to the model in real scenarios, integrating vaccination dynamics as a control parameter. The structure of the MSIRV model consists of a system of nonlinear partial differential equations. The computational implementation of the methods is verified using the Manufactured Solutions Method, which analyzes spatial convergence rates before their applicability to dynamic scenarios. The continuous spatial domain corresponds to the municipality of Seropédica (RJ). The simulations demonstrate that including the vaccination component significantly alters the viral infection rate. The model proved to be an effective prognostic tool for intervention planning and epidemic control. This research was conducted with the support of the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - FAPERJ.

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Author Biography

Amanda Maria Cardoso Cabral, Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro

Currently a Bachelor's degree student in Mathematics at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), she is a recipient of a Scientific Initiation scholarship from the Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), developing the project "Development of efficient techniques for solving Partial Differential Equations via numerical methods". She was also a recipient of a scientific initiation scholarship (FAPERJ) for projects focused on technology in education and the teaching of Mathematics, work that resulted in the publication of a book chapter on Euclidean Geometry and inclusion. She worked as a volunteer monitor for the Linear Algebra II course at UFRRJ. Her research interests lie in the areas of mathematical modeling, epidemiology, and computational numerical methods.