Psychohistory as an Inspiring Lens: Computational Models and Human Dynamics in Student Dropout

Abstract

Introduction-Problem. Student dropout is a persistent problem, where the dominant research agenda focuses on risk prediction (knowing who will drop out). This approach is insufficient to guide effective interventions. This article is the first in a two-part series dedicated to addressing this gap. Here, in Part I, a conceptual integration essay is developed to establish the theoretical foundations for a new framework.

Methodology. The methodology consists of proposing psychohistory as an integrative conceptual lens. This lens articulates findings from the neurobiology of stress and executive functions with approaches from data science and complex systems. The objective is to reorient the predictive agenda toward the design of empathetic and explainable socio-technical systems.

Results-Findings. The primary result is the establishment of the conceptual foundations that will form the CAPIRE framework (detailed in Part II). The findings from this synthesis include: (i) the conceptualization of neurobiological vulnerability as an embodied biography; (ii) the introduction of "psychoclasses" as latent psychosocial profiles; and (iii) the postulation of ethical governance principles (privacy, XAI) as central design elements.

Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations. We conclude that the objective must be to shift the question from "who drops out?" towards "what to do, for whom, and how?" . This article (Part I) lays the theoretical groundwork. Part II of the series operationalizes these foundations within the five-level CAPIRE framework (neurobiology, psychoclasses, dynamics, causal assessment, and ethical governance), formulating testable propositions and concrete methodological guidelines for its empirical validation.