Evaluación del comportamiento de la pandemia covid-19 y pronóstico de su evolución

Giordano Rodríguez Rodriguez; Nestor Miguel  Álvarez Álvarez; Magaly Almeida Borges; Rafael F. Ramírez Varona

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1367

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Giordano Rodríguez Rodriguez Professors of the department of Economy, School of Economic Sciences, University of Camagüey, Cuba
Nestor Miguel Álvarez Álvarez Centro de Estudio de Dirección y Desarrollo Empresarial y Territorial, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Camagüey, Cuba
Magaly Almeida Borges Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Camagüey, Cuba
Rafael F. Ramírez Varona Universidad de Camaguey https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9770-2660

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1367

Keywords:

Daily increment of sick person, Standard increment, New lethality, Covid-19, Indicator of salute

Abstract

Objective: To propose indicator and procedures to evaluate and predict the behavior of the pandemic covid-19.

Methods and techniques: Researching of information about the behavior of the pandemic covid-19 in the different sceneries and the application of mathematic and statistics methods.

Main results: Indicators and procedure that contribute to evaluate the pandemic covid-19 situation and to make prognosis in relation to the increment, sick persons and death for the decision making.

Conclusions: The proposed indicators and procedures contribute to evaluate the behavior of the pandemic covid-19 and to predict in a short and meddle terms it’s behavior for the sanitary and governmental decision making.