Government Evaluation, Approval, and Voting in Elections of Brazilian Capital Cities

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between government evaluation and electoral performance in municipal elections in Brazilian capitals between 2000 and 2024. Based on a dataset comprising 140 elections and opinion polls conducted on the eve of the first round, it analyzes how the incumbent’s approval rating and government evaluation correlate with vote outcomes and the likelihood of victory for government-backed candidates—either incumbents or endorsed successors. The results indicate that both variables capture the same latent construct of government satisfaction. The probabilistic models employed show that government evaluation influences not only the electoral outcome but also its intensity (victory in the first or second round). Additionally, the article proposes classificatory thresholds to identify elections of continuity, change, or intermediate transitions, contributing to strategic analysis and academic debate.