NEW RIGHT EMITTERS: POLITICAL AMATEURISM, OUTSIDERISM AND ANTI-CLIMATIC LEGISLATIVE PERFORMANCE IN BRAZIL

Abstract

Introduction: The renewal of the Chamber of Deputies in 2018 had a direct impact on Brazil's environmental agenda. Amid the rise of the so-called New Right, composed of new and marginal parties with an ultraliberal and pro-Bolsonaro profile, legislative initiatives contrary to climate mitigation policies intensified. This study seeks to understand the extent to which the degree of parliamentary professionalization and outsiderism are related to the adoption of anti-climate legislative positions during the 56th Legislature. 

Materials and methods: The research combines three indicators. The CO₂ Index measures the intensity of each representative's anti-climate action based on votes, speeches, and legislative proposals. The Parliamentarian Professionalization Index assesses experience and institutional integration in two dimensions: legislative specialization and parliamentary career. The Outsiderism Index captures the absence of prior experience in institutional politics. Pearson correlation tests, descriptive statistics, and multiple linear regression models were used. Results: A significant negative correlation was identified between the IPP and the CO₂ Index, suggesting that more professionalized parliamentarians tend to be less prone to emissions. Neophyte representatives from the New Right were the main emitters, with a 113% greater chance of taking an anti-climate position compared to their peers. Outsiderism, in isolation, was not statistically significant. 

Discussion: The profile of the main emitters in the Chamber reflects a broader dynamic of political renewal that favors the agenda of state deregulation. The concentration of ultraliberal and Bolsonaro supporters at the top of the ranking highlights the programmatic coherence between these ideological currents and opposition to climate mitigation policies. The anti-environmental agenda in the legislature is associated with the emergence of a new political generation that is less institutionalized and ideologically aligned with state deregulation, with direct implications for the ability to address the challenges of climate change.