THE 2024 ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE FAR-RIGHT IN BRASIL

Abstract

This research investigated the strategies and discourses of the far right in the 2024 elections, a strategic contest for the future of bolsonarismo in Brazilian politics. Our analysis was organized into four axes: the candidacy of Pablo Marçal (PRTB) in São Paulo, whose strength derived from the anti-system sentiment that remains strong among Brazilian voters; the disputes between the traditional right and the far right, in which the latter consolidated itself as the main protagonist of polarization against Lula and the left; the discourse and platforms of far-right candidacies in all state capitals, which reveal the coexistence of both a radical bolsonarismo and a technical bolsonarismo; and the financing of eight far-right candidacies, showing that their main source of resources was party funding, with the exception of Pablo Marçal. The research methodology was multiple, given the broad scope of the investigation: collection of TSE data on candidacies (candidate profiles, parties and coalitions, platforms, finances); analysis of candidates’ and parties’ social media, with daily monitoring of posts; and systematic follow-up of all debates and interviews on television and radio in which the candidates participated. The 2024 electoral outcome brought Bolsonaro back into the political arena, after two years on the defensive following his 2022 defeat and the attempted coup d’état of January 8, 2023. Although the former president is ineligible due to abuse of power during the 2022 elections and will also be for his participation in the coup attempt, the fact remains that Bolsonaro demonstrated significant political and social strength in the municipal elections.