Estratificación de áreas de riesgo de transmisión de dengue y sus características espacio temporales en la ciudad de Jaén, Perú entre 2000 y 2022

Mario Neyser Vásquez Dominguez; José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.12820

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Mario Neyser Vásquez Dominguez Médico, Jefe de Inteligencia Sanitaria – Red Amazonas, ESSALUD. Programa de Pós-graduação em Condições de Vida e Situações de Saúde na Amazônia – PPGVIDA/Vigifronteiras Brasil, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7755-3832
José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés Núcleo de Patógenos, Reservatórios e Vetores na Amazônia – PReV Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4162-6654

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.12820

Keywords:

Dengue, Climate, Aedes aegypti, Spatial Analysis, Risk Stratification

Abstract

Dengue is the leading arboviral disease in the Americas, with Peru among the most affected countries over the past decade. This observational, ecological, and retrospective study aimed to identify temporal patterns and stratify transmission risk areas in the city of Jaén, which accounts for over 80% of dengue cases in the Cajamarca department. Data on reported cases from 2000 to 2022 and georeferenced clinical information from 2019 to 2022 were analyzed. A total of 4,540 cases were recorded in the recent period, with a marked increase from 2021 onward. Most cases occurred in women, adults, and individuals without warning signs. It was found that the DENV-2 serotype was the predominant one in the analysis period. The most frequent symptoms were fever, myalgia, headache, arthralgia, retro-ocular pain, lower back pain, and rash. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a concentration of cases in the city center (59.87%) and an outbreak periodicity of 3–4 years, shortened by the introduction of new serotypes under favorable climatic conditions. A temporal association was found between incidence and high levels of rainfall and humidity, especially during the first six months of the year. The spatial risk stratification into three levels supports more targeted control actions in both time and space. Keywords: Dengue, Climate, Aedes, risk stratification.

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Author Biographies

Mario Neyser Vásquez Dominguez, Médico, Jefe de Inteligencia Sanitaria – Red Amazonas, ESSALUD. Programa de Pós-graduação em Condições de Vida e Situações de Saúde na Amazônia – PPGVIDA/Vigifronteiras Brasil, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia

Mario Vásquez holds a degree in Medicine and Surgery from the Antenor Orrego Private University (2011), with a specialization in Field Epidemiology from the National University of San Marcos (2021) and a Master's degree in Living Conditions and Health Situations in the Amazon from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (2024). He has experience in Public Health, with an emphasis on Epidemiology.

José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés, Núcleo de Patógenos, Reservatórios e Vetores na Amazônia – PReV Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia

José Joaquín holds a bachelor's degree in Biology from the National University of Colombia - Bogotá in 2004, a degree validated by the State University of Rio de Janeiro. He also holds a master's degree (2013) and a doctorate (2018) in Tropical Medicine, specializing in Diagnosis, Epidemiology, and Control, from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. He also completed a doctoral fellowship at the Maison de la Télédetection at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développment in Montpellier, France. He is developing research projects in the biology and ecology of mosquito vectors, vector surveillance and control, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases in the Amazon. He has experience in health geography, health surveillance, spatial epidemiology, geostatistics, biostatistics and medical entomology, working mainly on the following topics: Aedes albopictus, Aedes aegypti, dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria and Covid-19, with an emphasis on vector surveillance and control and the socio-environmental determinants of vector-borne diseases at the international borders of the Amazon Region. He is currently a public health researcher and permanent professor in the Postgraduate Program in Living Conditions and Health Situations in the Amazon (PPGVida) and the academic doctorate in Public Health in the Amazon (DASPAM) at ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia. He participates as an associate researcher in the International Mixed Laboratory - LMI Sentinel - Transboundary Observatories of Environment, Climate and Vector-borne Diseases (http://www.lmi-sentinela.unb.br/), associate researcher in the Zika Social Sciences Network (https://fiocruz.tghn.org/zikanetwork/), associate researcher in the Program for the Internationalization of Science, Technology and Innovation in Health (PICTIS), and co-coordinator of the Cross-border Network to combat Covid-19 between Brazil, Colombia, and Peru (https://amazonia.fiocruz.br/?page_id=31692). Additionally, he participates as a member of the Technical Chamber for International Cooperation of ILMD/Fiocruz Amazônia.