Female homicides in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: a time series analysis from 1980 to 2022

Abstract

Objective: This ecological study analyzes the temporal evolution of female homicide rates in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1980 to 2022, using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Methods: Possible change points in the trend of these rates was identified using the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt Change, Seasonality and Trend (BEAST) model. Results: A total of 29,234 female homicide cases were recorded during the period, including 3,914 among young women aged 15 to 19. The analysis detected two major change points in 1995 and 2004, dividing the time series into three segments: an increasing trend until 1994, a stable period from 1995 to 2003, and a decreasing trend from 2004 onward. Among young women, the data identified three change points, with a significant and consistent decline in homicide rates from 2004 to 2022. Conclusion: The number of female homicides in São Paulo has declined significantly since 2004, particularly among girls aged 15–19. Although this is linked to policy changes, the decline is likely due to multiple factors. The study highlights the importance of ongoing gender-focused policies and robust analytical tools in guiding public safety efforts.